UK Property Market: Expert House Price Predictions for 2024

Different sources use different methods to create their house price forecasts for the year ahead, which explains why the predictions can vary so much. Firstly, the current market and recent trends will be taken into consideration. In the absence of a large-scale economic or political event, the trajectory isn’t likely to change course massively month-to-month.

Historical price growth is another factor that can influence predictions. By looking at the past performance of regional markets and the UK as whole, experts can look at the rate of growth and how it was affected by previous economic and political changes, helping them guess how it may react in the future. These figures can be collected from a number of sources, and mortgage lenders and property platforms will often use their own data.

Not all economic fluctuations can be predicted before they happen but sometimes a general idea can be gleaned. For example, it was known that there would likely be an election this year before it was officially announced, as it had to be held in January 2025 at the latest, and experts took this into consideration while calculating their forecast. In light of new data, experts will often also update their forecasts to reflect the new information part way through the year.

Will UK House Prices Fall in 2024?

Initial forecasts for 2024 that were published at the end of last year were bearish, primarily due to high interest rates. 2023 was characterised as a challenging year, and as interest rates remained high, most expected these tougher conditions to continue and anticipated further modest price dips. However, after a better-than-expected start to the year, many forecasts have been updated with a more positive outlook. Now most forecasters seem to expect house price growth looking at the UK as a whole, but average growth predictions do vary by region and city. Regional forecasts are just as important as the UK average forecast, and will be looked at in more depth later in this article.

Some forecasts give projected figures for beyond 2024, with some even giving forecasts for five years ahead up to 2028.

For example, the Savills forecast gives predicted UK growth figures for the coming years. They forecast growth of 3.5% in 2025, 4.5% in 2026, 5% in 2027, and 4.5% in 2028, showing they believe increases will be more substantial per year following 2024’s 2.5%. They also state they anticipate cumulative growth of 21.6% in the next five years to 2028.

According to Knight Frank’s UK house price predictions for the next 5 years, the average UK growth in 2025 will be 3%, in 2026 it will be 4%, in 2027 it will be 5%, and in 2028 it will be 4%. They forecast a cumulative growth of 20.5% in five year’s time.

JLL’s future forecasts posit an average 3% increase in 2025 for the UK, growth of 3.5% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027, and 3.5% in 2028. Their cumulative prediction for 2024-2028 is growth of 17.6% for the UK as a whole.

What Will Happen to House Prices in Southern England?

In 2024, the South West and the South East are predicted to see growth of 1% and 1.5% respectively according to the Savills forecast. The 5-year forecast puts them at 18.7% and 18.2%, which is promising but less than the average predicted for the UK as a whole and much lower than some other forecasts for northern regions.

What Will Happen to House Prices in Northern England?

According to Savills, northern regions are in for the highest expected growth, with the North West forecast for 4% growth in 2024, Yorkshire and The Humber is forecast to experience 3.5% growth, and 4.5% for the North East. This is more than the UK average projection of 2.5%, and looking at the 5-year growth the difference is even more pronounced.

When it comes to 5-year growth leading to 2028, the North West has the highest prediction of any region at 28.8%. This means that North West property prices are predicted to grow twice as fast as London property.

Yorkshire and the Humber comes in second with 28.2%, and the North East is predicted to see 25.2% growth in the years leading up to 2028.

Further Reading: If you’re interested in North West property hotspots then find out more about the best areas to buy in Liverpool or property investments Manchester.

What Will Happen to House Prices in the Midlands?

Savills forecast that the West Midlands will see price growth of 2% in 2024, and the East Midlands is set for 2.5%.

Looking at the 5-year forecasts for these regions, the West Midlands is predicted to experience 23.4% growth, and the East Midlands is forecast to see 22.8%. Both forecasts are higher than the overall UK average growth projection of 21.6%, and more promising than London and other southern regions. But the Midlands is not forecast to experience better growth than the North of England or Scotland and Wales.

What Will Happen to House Prices in Wales and Scotland?

According to Savills’ forecast, Scotland and Wales are also predicted to be on a healthy growth trajectory. This year, Wales is forecast to see a property price increase of 4.5%, while Scotland is predicted to have 4% growth.

The 5-year forecast also looks optimistic for these two countries. In the five years leading up to 2028, Wales is set to see 26.4% growth and Scotland is predicted to see 25.8% growth. These are promising figures, outdoing London, the South of England, and the Midlands, but these predictions are not as high as the projected growth for the North West and Yorkshire and the Humber.

Investors should also keep in mind that stamp duty in Wales and Scotland differs to that of England.